NewsEurope FX Forecast Revision

The performance of the CEE currencies so far in 2022 has been similarly disparate as in 2021. The Czech koruna has outperformed its peers, posting small gains against the euro, while the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint have suffered losses, the latter being quite significant. In fact, the forint is currently the third worst performing emerging market currency that we cover year-to-date. Somewhat surprisingly, and contrary to last year, the Romanian leu has edged slightly higher, and at the time of writing is marginally stronger since the beginning of the year. These contrasting performances can, in our view, be largely attributed to differences in macroeconomic fundamentals, central bank actions, and risk sensitivity.

Read more at Ebury’s forecasts