NewsEbury G10 Weekly FX Update: Dollar falls as recession fears recede, yields fall

Risk assets rose worldwide last week as the backdrop turned more supportive.

Recession fears seem to be easing worldwide, particularly in the Eurozone, but interest rates are not rising in tandem, the best combination possible for stock markets, credit and commodity currencies. The dollar underperformed against every currency in G10, and the biggest winners were Latin American currencies. The major exception was the Brazilian real, which continues to be hobbled by fears that the Lula administration will undo the economic stabilisation achieved over the last year in Brazil.

As this is written, news of the anti-lockdown protests in China are dominating headlines and risk assets are opening softer in Asian early morning trading. In addition to the headlines from China, this should be a very busy week for markets. The flash inflation report out of the Eurozone (Wednesday) is expected to remain at record highs, especially in the core indicator, a stark contrast to the wishful thinking we see in the ECB and elsewhere that inflation will somehow go away on its own. The latter part of the week will be dominated by US macro news, including the PCE inflation report (Thursday) and the critical November payrolls report (Friday).

Read the full Ebury report.